Low inventory continues to push up median sales prices in all jurisdictions; Subtle signs of a changing inventory pattern begin to emerge with new listings

OVERVIEW

Price growth continues throughout the Washington DC Metro Region, driven by the low inventory of homes for sale. The low inventory is also pushing up the average sale-to-list price ratio, which is now at its highest level since the summer of 2006. While active listings remain at historic lows, new listings are beginning to show signs of what could be a changing pattern. New listings are up over 13 percent across all property segments in the region compared to last month, which is well above the 10-year average change for each segment.

Lowest level of new listings for any month on record

OVERVIEW

As the year concludes, most indicators point to a healthier market than last year, but several clues reveal a possible softening of demand in the near-term.  Sales numbers and the median price are up from this time last year, but new contracts have declined slightly for the 2^nd straight month. Additionally, unseasonable declines in sales and median price from November could be an early sign of weakening demand.  The market is experiencing historically low inventory, with active listings at their lowest December-level in nearly a decade, and new listings at their lowest level for any month on record. While intuitively low supply would put upward pressure on prices, it could be that many buyers are deciding to delay their home purchase until more options become available on the market, which is loosening the pressure on pricing as evidenced by the $11,000 drop in the median sale price from November.  Many potential sellers could be hesitant to enter the market during the winter months, so an increase in the spring inventory would likely entice buyers back into the market, and push median prices back up.